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Inventory financing break-even: does the order pay for its money?

Enter what the stock costs, its margin, how fast it sells and what the financing costs. See the profit left after financing, the break-even sell-through and whether sales cash arrives before the payments do.

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Run the numbers

Updated October 13, 2026 · Merchant Fund Express

Expected sales from this stock–
Incremental gross profit–
Financing cost–
Gross profit left after financing–
Break-even sell-through–
Sales cash by end of term–

Illustrative arithmetic only. This is not an offer or a quote; real terms depend on your file and the funder.

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The formulas and assumptions

Full retail value = inventory cost divided by (1 minus gross margin). At 40% margin, $40,000 of stock sells for $66,667
Expected sales = full retail value times the share you expect to sell at that margin
Incremental gross profit = expected sales times gross margin
Break-even sell-through = financing cost divided by the gross profit on the whole order; the week is that share spread evenly over the sell-through
Sales cash by end of term = expected sales divided by sell-through weeks, times the smaller of term or sell-through weeks
Owed = inventory cost plus financing cost, assuming the whole order is financed

Assumptions: sales arrive evenly across the sell-through weeks; stock you do not sell is not counted as profit (it stays on the shelf at cost); margin is capped at 99% and blank fields count as 0. If your offer quotes a factor rate, the financing cost is the funded amount times (factor rate minus 1).

A worked example

A store wants $40,000 of holiday stock with a 40% gross margin, expects to sell 90% of it at full margin within 12 weeks, and is looking at funding that costs $6,000 over a 16-week term.

LineMathResult
Full retail value$40,000 / 0.60$66,667
Expected sales (90%)$66,667 x 0.90$60,000
Incremental gross profit$60,000 x 0.40$24,000
Financing cost$6,000
Left after financing$24,000 - $6,000$18,000
Break-even sell-through$6,000 / $26,66722.5% of the order
Sales cash by week 16$5,000 x 12 weeks$60,000 vs $46,000 owed

The order pays for its money once about 22.5% of it sells, around week 3 at this pace. Sales cash of $5,000 a week covers the $46,000 owed by about week 9.2. If the same stock took 30 weeks to sell, gross profit would be unchanged, but only $32,000 of sales cash would arrive by week 16, and the remaining payments would come from other money.

All figures in worked examples are illustrations of the arithmetic, not offers or quotes. Real terms depend on your file and the funder.

Who this fits, and when to wait

It fits a business buying stock it has sold before, at a margin it knows, for a season or a supplier discount it can date. Retail, wholesale, restaurants and auto parts are typical. It is a poor fit for untested product lines: if you cannot estimate sell-through from past sales, the break-even is a guess. In that case buy a smaller first order with cash, or ask the supplier for net-30 or net-60 terms, which can cost less than any financing.

Watch the speed mismatch. A daily or weekly payment starts right away, while slow-moving stock pays back over months. When the sell-through is longer than the term, the payment lands on the rest of the business. Run it through the MCA cash flow stress test or the payment burden calculator. For background on structures, read how inventory financing works and the inventory financing guide.

What a funder reads

About 3 months of business bank statements, as PDFs
Deposits that show sales from earlier stock cycles, the evidence for your sell-through assumption
The supplier quote or purchase order, for larger requests
Existing advance or loan debits

Requests start at $25,000, and a FICO of 500+ is considered. Tier rules are on the funding requirements page.

Next step

If the order covers its financing cost and the cash timing holds, check what you qualify for; the application takes about 5 minutes and starts with a soft credit pull. To compare two offers for the same order, use the offer comparison calculator.

Keep reading

MCA Cash Flow Stress Test: Base, -15% and -30% monthly cash test for an MCA payment, on gross profit.
Offer Comparison Calculator: Net cash, cost per dollar and a dated schedule for up to three offers.
Business Financing Guide: Every practical financing guide, organized by task.

Common questions

Is markup the same as gross margin?

No. A 100% markup is a 50% gross margin. Margin is gross profit divided by the selling price; enter margin here.

Why not count the unsold stock?

It is still inventory at cost, not profit. Counting it would make the order look like it pays for itself before the cash exists. You can sell it later; it just does not help this repayment.

What if the stock only sells at a discount?

Run it twice: once at full margin with a lower share sold, and once at the discounted margin. Use the weaker result.

Does the calculator include storage and shipping?

No. Subtract them from your margin, or add them to the financing cost if they come with the order.

What is a good amount of room above break-even?

There is no fixed rule. The further break-even sits below the share you expect to sell, the more a slow season can miss before the order loses money.

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